SHANGHAI/BEIJING — China appears poised to finalize a landmark aircraft order with Airbus, a move analysts say could involve anywhere from 100 to 500 new jets, effectively sidelining Boeing and signaling a dramatic shift in aviation geopolitics.
According to the South China Morning Post, Europe is emerging as China’s favored aircraft supplier, with a possible commitment of at least 100–200 planes during a visit by European leaders this month. Bloomberg and Reuters earlier reported that China’s interest in Airbus may extend to 300–500 narrowbody and widebody jets, slated for announcement at a high-profile summit in Beijing. reuters.com
Boeing’s China Market Freeze
Since 2017, Boeing has failed to land any major Chinese orders, with growing lag attributed to US-China trade disputes and concerns over the Boeing 737 MAX. China recently declined to authorize new MAX deliveries amid continued aviation safety and political tensions. investopedia.com
An aviation consultant quoted by SCMP explained:
“Buying from Airbus makes a lot of sense now… carriers with Boeing-only fleets are caught on the back foot,”scmp.com.
Airbus Gains Ground in China
Airbus already maintains a Shanghai-area assembly facility in Tianjin, producing A320neos. That plant is scheduled for a production expansion to 75 aircraft per month by 2026, part of a broader strategy to meet China’s domestic demand.
To date, Airbus has delivered over 1,100 aircraft to Chinese carriers, compared to 600 Boeing jets, firmly positioning Airbus as the dominant foreign supplier. as.com. Executives report Airbus is managing supply chain issues more effectively than Boeing, leveraging 766 jet deliveries in 2024.
China’s Domestic C919 Ambitions
The potential Airbus mega-order coincides with China’s development of the COMAC C919, a domestically produced narrowbody designed to reduce dependency on Western manufacturers. While the C919 is in service with China Eastern and China Southern, its market impact remains limited outside China due to lack of full international certification.
Analysts note that China must balance supporting COMAC’s ambitions with ensuring sufficient mature capacity for its airlines, making the Airbus deal essential.
Geopolitical Underpinnings
Observers attribute China’s impending decision to geopolitical and diplomatic factors. As a publicly visible gesture, the deal signals distancing from the US amid growing technology and trade friction . It underscores an implicit shift in global aviation alliances.
As Reuters Breakingviews pointed out, such state-linked triple-digit aircraft orders often accompany high-level diplomatic meetings, as was the case with Airbus’s 300-jet order coinciding with Xi’s 2019 visit to Europe.
Boeing’s Challenging Path Forward
Boeing’s struggles include persistent production bottlenecks, the 737 MAX crisis, and political pressures. Its absence from the Chinese market, now the world’s second-largest aviation market, threatens Boeing’s global recovery.
Some analysts argue that Boeing could regain ground if US-China relations improve and there is a new framework for aircraft trade.
However, Triumph for Airbus in China may solidify structural market advantages and encourage further state-backed aerospace collaboration, such as EU-China partnerships on green aviation and SAF production.
Economic & Industry Outlook
The deal valued at an estimated $20–50 billion depending on order size and aircraft mix could deliver a significant boost to Airbus’s production projections and narrowbody imprint .
China, meanwhile, faces a growing fleet need. Boeing estimates that the country’s commercial aircraft fleet will more than double to nearly 9,755 planes by 2044, accounting for roughly 20% of global demand reuters.com.
Our Takeaway
The unfolding deal highlights how aviation procurement is increasingly influenced by technology, economics, and geopolitics. For Airbus, it represents validation of in-market investment and diplomatic timing. For Boeing, it underscores the challenge of regaining trust and overcoming trade fallout.
In sum, China’s move toward Airbus appears poised to reshape global aerospace dynamics, altering manufacturer leverage, bolstering Europe-China ties, and leaving Boeing navigating an increasingly bifurcated marketplace.
