Air Cargo Rebounds in July
Global air cargo demand surged in July 2025, with volumes rising 13.6% year-on-year, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA)’s latest Air Cargo Market Analysis. The strong rebound was driven by robust Asia-Pacific trade flows, easing fuel costs, and the impact of shifting global tariffs.
The analysis, released by IATA’s Sustainability and Economics division on August 29, highlights that cargo activity surpassed pre-pandemic levels, cementing air freight’s role as a vital backbone of global supply chains.
“The resilience of the air cargo sector is evident, with Asia-Pacific markets driving global recovery,” IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh said in the release.
Read the full IATA report here.
Key Findings from IATA July 2025 Report
- Demand Growth (CTKs): Global cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs) rose 13.6% YoY, outperforming the 9% growth seen in June.
- Capacity Expansion (ACTKs): Available capacity increased 12.2% YoY, reflecting airlines’ strong network rebuild.
- Load Factor: Cargo load factor (CLF) improved by 0.5 percentage points, signaling a balanced demand-capacity environment.
- Regional Leaders:
- Asia-Pacific airlines posted the strongest growth (+23.5% YoY).
- Middle Eastern carriers grew by +18.4%, supported by regional hubs like Dubai and Doha.
- African airlines achieved +12.7%, sustained by resilient intra-Africa and Europe-Africa flows.
- Fuel Price Relief: Global jet fuel prices declined 8.6% MoM, easing cost pressures.
Asia-Pacific Airlines Drive Global Growth
Asia-Pacific carriers led the surge, benefiting from robust e-commerce flows, tariff-driven demand shifts, and strong trans-Pacific trade lanes.
IATA’s analysis showed capacity in the region jumped 21.4% YoY, the fastest among all regions. Key markets like China, South Korea, and Vietnam recorded significant volume increases, with electronics and consumer goods dominating shipments.
This aligns with Reuters’ late-August coverage, which confirmed that Chinese exporters front-loaded shipments to bypass new tariff deadlines in North America and Europe.
Middle East and Africa Sustain Momentum
Middle Eastern carriers registered a double-digit growth of 18.4% YoY, boosted by increased connections between Asia, Europe, and Africa. Airlines based in the Gulf, particularly Emirates SkyCargo and Qatar Airways Cargo, capitalized on strong regional positioning.
African airlines also posted 12.7% growth, outperforming expectations. According to FlightGlobal, intra-African routes benefited from the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), while strong demand for perishables and mining-related cargo supported resilience.
North America and Europe Show Modest Gains
- North American carriers saw 5.3% growth, constrained by slowing domestic economic activity but supported by strong Latin America trade flows.
- European airlines registered 8.9% growth, aided by new tariff-linked demand but limited by capacity bottlenecks at secondary hubs.
These figures reflect a shift: emerging markets are now outpacing mature economies in cargo recovery.
Macro Trends Shaping Cargo Demand
IATA identified three major macro factors influencing July’s cargo surge
- Tariff Policy Shifts
- New tariffs in North America and Europe accelerated front-loading of shipments from Asia.
- Supply chain managers relied on air cargo to bypass delays at seaports.
- Fuel Price Declines
- Global jet fuel prices fell nearly 9% month-on-month, giving airlines breathing space.
- This translated into more competitive freight rates, spurring demand.
- Global Trade Resilience
- Despite trade policy frictions, global manufacturing and e-commerce sectors remained strong.
- PMI indices pointed to an expansion in consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals, and automotive parts shipments.
Industry Context: IATA, ICAO, and Trade Bodies
The rebound underscores progress toward broader aviation frameworks like the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) and the Asia-Pacific e-commerce corridors championed by IATA.
ICAO has repeatedly emphasized that air cargo is a critical enabler of trade integration, especially for landlocked economies. This July 2025 surge validates that position.
Statistics at a Glance (July 2025 – IATA)
- Global CTKs: +13.6% YoY
- Available Capacity (ACTKs): +12.2% YoY
- Cargo Load Factor (CLF): +0.5 percentage points YoY
- Jet Fuel Price: -8.6% MoM
- Asia-Pacific Growth: +23.5% YoY
- Middle East Growth: +18.4% YoY
- Africa Growth: +12.7% YoY
What This Means for Airlines and Shippers
For airlines:
- Rising cargo demand provides a cushion against weaker passenger yields.
- Airlines in Asia and the Middle East are positioned to gain the most.
For shippers:
- More capacity and falling fuel prices could mean better freight rates.
- Time-sensitive sectors (electronics, pharma, automotive) continue to prefer air over sea freight.
What’s Next, Industry Outlook
IATA cautions that while July 2025 showed robust gains, sustainability will depend on:
- Tariff stability: trade frictions could continue to distort flows.
- Fuel market volatility: declines are temporary, subject to OPEC+ decisions.
- E-commerce demand: expected to remain a structural driver of growth.
Overall, industry analysts project high-single-digit cargo growth through Q4 2025, with Asia-Pacific and Middle East carriers maintaining momentum.
